Here’s Ontario’s new COVID-19 modelling

Henrietta Brewer
January 13, 2021

Ontario's COVID-19 science table released their latest projections this morning, detailing alarming new findings that paint a dire picture for the province over the coming months.

"The COVID-19 Response Framework (colour-coded zones) is paused during this time", reads a note at the top of the province's public health measures breakdown.

There are more than 400 patients in intensive care units across the province and surgeries are being cancelled, he said.

Despite alarming modelling data, the Ford government continues to refuse advice from public health experts to implement paid sick days to curb the spread of the virus by ensuring that workers can stay home if they are sick. The latest projections indicate that between now and the end of February, deaths per day will likely double from 50 to 100 if more restrictions are not implemented.

Health officials have said that when more than 300 COVID-19 patients are in intensive care, medical care in hospitals not related to the disease becomes almost impossible to handle.


Growth in cases has accelerated and is over 7% on the worst days. "We are seeing potentially cases going up to 15,000 (per day)", said Ford. Paying close attention to the border to prevent more travel-related cases of the variant, and restricting travel within and between provinces to reduce viral transmission, Dhalla said. Forecasts suggest more deaths in wave 2 in long-term care than in wave 1. Since Jan. 1, 198 LTC residents and two staff have died from the virus.

"The choices will affect all patients needing intensive care, whether it is patients who have a heart attack, who have been in a motor-vehicle accident, who have COVID-19 or any other cause". But another 41 people had died in the province since Monday and 138 more were admitted to hospital because of COVID-19.

As for children who aren't of school age, daycares and child care centres will remain open. Of those, 23 were residents of long-term care homes.

Windsor Mayor Drew Dilkens says he fully supports the new restrictions. 7, is believed at least 56 per cent, and possibly up to 74 per cent, more contagious than the current dominant strain.

Tuesday's case count brings the total number of lab-confirmed cases in Ontario to 222,023, including deaths and recoveries.


"We have looked, certainly, at the measures put in place in other jurisdictions, other countries, and curfews have been put in place with multiple other measures", Yaffe said.

According to survey data, the majority of Ontarians are helping limit spread by following health and safety measures as well as lockdown restrictions.

While the newly-declared state of emergency will come into effect this evening, Ontario's new stay-at-home order will become effective at 12:01 a.m. on Thursday, January 14.

Ford said the stay-at-home order was indeed a drastic measure that wasn't being taken lightly. A Durham Region couple that tested positive for the United Kingdom variant has reportedly been charged with public-health related offences after initially telling public health officials they had no contact with travellers, which later proved to be false.


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