Majority of economists expect a recession by 2021, survey finds

Cheryl Sanders
August 19, 2019

A majority of economists expect a USA recession in the next two years, but have pushed back the onset, according to a survey Monday from the National Association for Business Economists. We're doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich.

WASHINGTON-President Donald Trump and top White House officials dismissed concerns that economic growth may be faltering, saying on August 18 they saw little risk of recession despite a volatile week on global stock markets, and insisting their trade war with China was doing no damage to the United States.

President Donald Trump said he is "prepared for everything" but that "most economists" don't think a recession is on the horizon as growing fears of a slowdown persist.

Thirty-four percent of the economists surveyed said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021.

"I don't see a recession", Kudlow said on NBC's Meet the Press, echoing his boss.

"Consumers are working at higher wages".

"The impact from reduced spending could be immediate for discretionary goods and services since tariffs are regressive", they wrote.

The National Association for Business Economists (Nabe) found that far fewer experts now think the next recession will start this year, compared to a survey in February.

He also said the economy is "very strong" and that Democrats are trying to "will" it to "be bad for purposes of the 2020 election".

In two tweets Monday, Trump kept up his pressure on the Fed and its chairman Jerome Powell, saying the US economy was strong "despite the horrendous lack of vision by Jay Powell and the Fed". Mr. Trump decided last Wednesday to postpone until December 15 tariffs on about 60% of an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, granting a reprieve from a planned move that would have extended duties to almost everything the US buys from China. Stock markets around the world shuddered as the White House announced 10% tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, the Chinese currency dipped below the seven-yuan-to-$1 level for the first time in 11 years and the Trump administration formally labeled China a currency manipulator.

The president tied trade negotiations with the ongoing situation in Hong Kong on camera for the first time, saying that a deal between the U.S. and China would be harder if there is a violent conclusion to protests there, because of concerns raised by United States lawmakers.

Their comments follow a week in which concerns about a possible US recession weighed on financial markets.

Economists are skeptical about a resolution to Trump's trade wars, although 64 percent said a "superficial agreement is possible", Nabe said.

According to commentary by CNBC, the comments out of Washington over the weekend were meant to counteract claims by Democratic presidential candidates who cited Trump's erratic economic and political policies for the increased market volatility in recent months.

In another tweet, he added that the U.S. economy was "poised for big growth after trade deals are completed", and that China is "eating Tariffs".

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