U.S. breaks 125-year rain record as Gulf prepares for tropical system

Pablo Tucker
July 10, 2019

A tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast. A majority of the Euro (see Fig. 2) and GFS (see Fig. 3) ensemble members show a projected landfall of a strong topical storm somewhere between the upper-Texas coast and Louisiana by the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center has a high 80 percent chance for tropical development in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

While named tropical systems usually catch our attention, the effects of this weather pattern change little whether this system forms or not. Regardless of those details, several inches of rain are still possible in many areas.

Florida residents along the west coast are asked to be prepared and stay vigilant in tracking the weather for the remainder of the week.

An area of low pressure will drop south from the Panhandle of Florida into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 24 hours. Further inland, near normal rainfall is expected the rest of the week.

The area in question is now known as "Invest 92-L" which simply means the National Hurricane Center is investigating it for potential development. Confidence is high that a tropical depression will develop and strengthen into a tropical storm!

"Any of the storms that develop the next few days will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes and brief gusty winds", Miami meteorologists from the NWS wrote in a morning forecast. Most models move it west, away from Southwest GA.

Later in the week, it could also bring heavy rains to the the still-recovering Florida Panhandle, which was battered by Category 5 Hurricane Michael last fall. The tropical influence for the Tennessee Valley is to be determined, but we will be watching closely.

It's too early to pinpoint exactly where the system would strike the worst, or how intense it would be.

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