NOAA predicting warmer than average winter in New England

Pablo Tucker
October 18, 2019

While the temperature outlook has most of the north-central part of the country seeing normal temperatures this winter, warmer-than-normal temperatures are likely for most of the rest of the nation. It may, but there just is not anything that is causing forecasters to lean toward cold or warm.

"Although below-average temperatures are not favored, cold weather is anticipated and some areas could still experience a colder-than-average winter", the agency wrote in the outlook.

These forecast are based on several factors, one of which is The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is expected to be in a neutral phase this year.


While NOAA does not predict snowfall far in advance, AccuWeather, the private forecasting service, does.

"Without either El Nino or La Nina conditions, short-term climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation will drive winter weather and could result in large swings in temperature and precipitation", said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center [icm-tracking.meltwater.com].

Portions of California, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas and MS are expected to have drier than normal winter months.


A new winter weather outlook indicates chances are good that Minnesota will see a snowy winter again.

Drought conditions are expected to improve in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Alaska and Hawaii. "Before snow lovers start rejoicing, this doesn't necessarily mean we'll end up with more than our 26" average snowfall.

El Nino is warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of South America.


NOAA's Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available on November 21.

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