Crude Oil Price Forecast: $100 per barrel by 2019

Crude Oil Price Forecast: $100 per barrel by 2019

Andrew Cummings
May 15, 2018

The surge in oil prices comes at a time of tight supply amid record Asian demand and voluntary output restraint by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers including Russian Federation.

Smoke billows from a working oil facility on Iran's Kharg Island, on the shore of the Persian Gulf, on March 12, 2017.

Trying to ease market concerns, Saudi Arabia on Wednesday said it would work with other producers to lessen the impact of any shortage in oil supplies.

Iran re-emerged as a major oil exporter in 2016 after global sanctions against it were lifted in return for curbs on its nuclear program, with its April exports standing above 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd).

"Anything that's slightly less than that-by which I mean he may delay his decision, or he may not impose the same amount of sanctions previously-I think markets would react favorably to that, given that markets are now pricing in probably the worst-case scenario", Tim Fox, head of research and chief economist at Emirates NBD, told CNBC's Capital Connection.

Earlier in the week, the CEO of Italy's Eni said Europe should use its diplomatic clout with the United States to limit the impact of renewed sanctions against Iran.

US crude futures climbed 49 cents, or 0.69%, to $71.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The oil cartel's report shows positive signs of the oil market and the joint oil production cut, however, a stronger rivalry from USA shale, as it is expected to rise under a relatively higher price. She said the move may not only anger US citizens but allies overseas who have urged Trump to stay in the nuclear agreement.

In retrospect, the USA president´s April 20 tweet blaming OPEC for high oil prices can be seen as part of the negotiating.

Tehran remained a part of OPEC after its pro-West monarchy was overthrown by the 1979 Islamic Revolution, but its economy was beset by an eight-year war with neighboring Iraq.

A consultant says USA shale's days are numbered.

Shortly after Trump's pullout announcement, a number of reports by Bank of America Corp suggested that the Iran-related move coupled with a dip in Venezuela's oil production will lay a heavy burden on global crude oil markets. Jet fuel and diesel fuel prices are soaring as the shale oil is not yielding enough of those products.

"Germany has said it will protect its companies from USA sanctions, Iran has said French oil giant Total has yet to pull out of its fields and all the while it seems the Chinese are ready to fill the void created by the U.S". The Guardian reported that John Bolton, Donald Trump's national security adviser, predicted that "the Europeans will see that it's in their interests to come along with us" rather than continue with the 2015 deal, under which major European corporations have signed billions of dollars of contracts in Iran.

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