IMD predicts normal monsoon rainfall in 2018

Ross Houston
April 16, 2018

The IMD forecast comes days after a similar prediction by the private weather forecast agency Skymet Weather, which on April 4 said the Monsoon 2018 was likely to remain normal at 100 per cent (with an error margin of +/-5 per cent) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September. If the average rainfall is below 90 per cent of LPA, the Monsoon is termed "deficient".

IMD Director General K G Ramesh said there is a "very less probability' of deficient rainfall this season".

In 2017, while IMD predicted 96 percent average rainfall in its first forecast in April, the monsoon season over the country as a whole was 97 per cent of its Long Period Average (LPA).

Ramesh said about the nation that the country does not face lacking rainfall throughout monsoon season on this 2019. The Indian Met Department will also today come out with its first official forecast of this year's monsoon. Since 2012, IMD is also using the dynamical global climate forecasting system (CFS) model developed under the Monsoon Mission to generate forecasts. The IMD predicted 97 per cent chance of near-normal showers. At that point of time, apart from an updated forecast for the country as a whole and the season in its entirety, the department would issue separate forecasts for rainfall for the months of July and August for the country as a whole and season-wide rainfall for the four distinct geographical areas - north-west India, south peninsula, north-east India and Central India.

A figure between 96 and 104 per cent of rainfall indicates a normal monsoon and between 105 and 110 per cent above normal. Previous year also, there was a normal monsoon forecast by the IMD. India had 95 per cent of the LPA rainfall past year - as against the first forecast of 96 per cent of the LPA (with an error margin of +/- 5 per cent).

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