Sadiq Khan: A hard Brexit equals loss in investment and jobs

Cheryl Sanders
January 13, 2018

A no-deal Brexit could cost the United Kingdom economy £50bn, according to independent economic analysis commissioned by Mayor of London Sadiq Khan.

Financial and professional services could be the hardest hit, with 119,000 fewer jobs nationally, the report claims.

The analysis by Cambridge Econometrics predicts that a no-deal Brexit could shed as many as 87,000 jobs in London alone, with the capital's economic output 2% lower in 2030 than what would be expected under a soft Brexit. This would widen geographic inequalities across the UK. The UK's economic output (measured by Gross Value Added) could fall by 3% by 2030 - the equivalent of £54.5bn. Britain and the European Union will soon begin the much harder task of defining their future trading relationship, after settling the broad terms of their divorce settlement last month.

"The government's unchanged".

The report, which models five possible scenarios for leaving the European Union ranging from a near-status quo situation to leaving on World Trade Organisation terms without any transition agreement, warns that the worst option could be a "lost decade" of economic slump.

"If the government continue to mishandle the negotiations we could be heading for a lost decade of lower growth and lower employment", Khan said.

"I've released these impact assessments because the British people and our businesses have a right to know the likely impact of the various options the government are considering on their lives and personal finances".

Under a deal in which Britain was able to secure privileged access to the single market, annual growth... "Their complete lack of preparation is irresponsible leading to fears that they are putting party politics ahead of the national interest". The analysis does however highlight the scale of the comparative risks associated with each scenario and potential outcome from the negotiations.

"In the Brexit year 2019, a hard Brexit would cause sales of German suppliers to shrink by 23 per cent from 16.4 to 12.6 billion euros, which represents a decline of around 5 per cent of German suppliers' current total turnover", Deloitte chief economist Alexander Boersch said.

Did you like this?

Other reports by iNewsToday