UN says world population will reach 9.8 billion in 2050

Cheryl Sanders
June 22, 2017

In its 2013 estimates, the United Nations had projected India's population to overtake China's in 2028.

The United Nations said Wednesday that the world population is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, and to hit 9.8 billion by 2050, despite almost universal lower fertility rates.

"In 2024, both countries are expected to have roughly 1.44 billion", which will be an increase from 1.34 billion people in India now and 1.41 in China, the report said.

The U.N. said that among the 10 largest countries, Nigeria is growing the fastest.

UN says world population will reach 9.8 billion in 2050

The countries projected to be net senders of more than 100,000 migrants annually include India, Bangladesh, China, Pakistan and Indonesia.

India's population could surpass that of China's around 2024, two years later than previously estimated, and is projected to touch 1.5 billion in 2030, according to a United Nations forecast.

"During 2010-2015, fertility was below the replacement level in 83 countries comprising 46 per cent of the world's population", said the report.

More and more countries now have fertility rates below the level of roughly 2.1 births per woman needed to replace the current generation, the report said.

At that rate, the global population will reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, it said.

In May this year, Chinese experts claimed that India's population had already surpassed China's.

The world population is now at least 7.6 billion, up from 7.4 billion a year ago, spurred by the relatively high levels of fertility in developing countries - despite an overall drop in the number of children people have around the globe, revealed World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision.

In 2045-2050, it is expected that slightly less than a third of the world s population will live in countries with fertility in this range.

The report highlights that a reduction in the fertility level results not only in a slower pace of population growth but also in an older population.

After 2050, India's population is likely to stabilise and begin to decline, going down to 1.5 billion by 2100, according to the report's projection.

"Europe has the lowest fertility level, estimated at 1.6 births per woman in the most recent period, while Africa has the highest fertility, with around 4.7 births per woman", he said.

Meanwhile, Europe's population is predicted to continue ageing, with the percentage of people aged 60 or older rising from 25 per cent in 2017 to 35 per cent in 2050.

Fertility rates have fallen in almost all parts of the world, including Africa - the region with the highest rates - where they have dropped to 4.7 children per woman from 5.1 children per woman in 2000 - 2005.

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